Here we go. England face Argentina in the World Cup semi-finals on Wednesday – a fixture loaded with history, jeopardy and one final obstacle between Thomas Tuchel’s side and the World Cup final. It may be the biggest England game of a generation, but where could it be won or lost?
Too close to call?
According to Opta, the outcome is almost a coin toss, with Tuchel’s side given a 52.9 per cent chance of reaching the final. France are favourites on the other side of the draw, but England still have a 22.6 per cent chance of becoming world champions.
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Superstars collide
Two superstars will collide in the air-conditioned Atlanta cauldron: Jude Bellingham and Lionel Messi. Sixteen years separate them, but both have shaped their teams’ tournaments, carrying huge attacking responsibility and delivering decisive moments on the road to the semi-finals.
Jude Bellingham’s heat map and shot map
All-action Bellingham has now scored twice in successive England games, taking his tournament tally to six.
Operating in an advanced No 10 role, the Real Madrid midfielder has become England’s most explosive attacking force – and the range of shots underlines the confidence running through his game.
Lionel Messi’s heat map and shot map
And then there is Messi. Having seemingly bowed out as a world champion four years ago, the 39-year-old has returned to mesmerise once again, leading Argentina’s charge and sharing the Golden Boot lead with fellow 2022 finalist Kylian Mbappe.
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The Sky Sports Power Rankings reflect which players have made the greatest impact across the tournament, and it is no surprise to see Messi on top. Bellingham is next, ahead of Harry Kane, who has also spearheaded England’s run to the semi-finals.
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Who else can hurt England?
Argentina are not just Messi. They are the tournament’s top scorers with 17 goals, one ahead of France, and their threat is spread across the team: eight different Argentina players have scored, compared with three for England.
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Sky Sports’ Rob Dorsett reports that Declan Rice has overcome his stomach bug and is fit to start England’s World Cup semi-final against Argentina on Wednesday
Tuchel’s side edge some of the territory metrics, including passes into the box, box touches and big chances created, but Argentina lead for goals, expected goals, shots and fast breaks.
You can tap on the column headers below to sort the stats and evaluate which players pose the greatest threats. Perhaps surprisingly, Bellingham has notched more non-penalty expected goals than Kane to date.
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Can England’s width expose Argentina’s narrow shape?
Argentina’s shape is unusual. Their wide players have often averaged deep, closer to wide midfielders than orthodox wingers, which could create space for England’s full-backs to advance.
England’s wingers, by contrast, have stayed high and wide, while Kane’s deeper average position reflects his tendency to drop in and release runners ahead of him.
That contrast is reflected in the attacking-third data: 74 per cent of England’s threat has come down the flanks, split almost evenly left and right. Argentina are more balanced, but their central threat is unusually high – Messi territory.
But that doesn’t mean England have nothing to fear from wide. As the graphic below shows, Argentina have created with potency from corners. In fact, no team has scored more goals from corners at the tournament than Argentina and England.
The set-piece battle: Messi’s delivery vs England’s aerial power
This is one of the game’s clearest tactical battlegrounds. Argentina and England have been among the tournament’s most dangerous set-piece sides, while England have been dominant in the air.
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Jude Bellingham responds to Thomas Tuchel’s criticism of England’s performance against Norway
In England’s box, it could become the tournament’s best dead-ball attack against one of its strongest aerial defences.
Argentina’s corner routine is clear: when deliveries are mirrored as if taken from the left, nearly half are fired towards the near-post zone.
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Gary Neville says he has ‘no problem’ with the post-match exchanges between Thomas Tuchel and Jude Bellingham after England’s World Cup win against Norway
England’s defenders will recognise the pattern which has been frequently used in the Premier League this season, but stopping it is another matter.
Do not ignore Argentina’s midfield supply line
Do not ignore Argentina’s midfield supply line. Enzo Fernandez, Alexis Mac Allister, Rodrigo De Paul and Leandro Paredes can overload central areas, meaning Declan Rice and Elliot Anderson may need support from Bellingham, Kane and the full-backs to stop England being outnumbered.
Paredes stands out as Argentina’s deeper creator, leading the way for passes breaking defensive lines, progressive carries and passes into the final third. But Messi remains in a league of his own closer to goal, with 60 passes into the opposition box – evidence that he is as dangerous creating chances as finishing them.
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How will Argentina test England’s defence?
Reece James’ return at right-back could be timely. Argentina do not need orthodox wingers to exploit it. Messi’s drifting role, Argentina’s midfield rotations and Molina’s runs from deep could all test England’s right flank.
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England defensive solidity has waned from front to back so far and the majority of assists against Thomas Tuchel’s side have come from England’s weakened right flank.
Who’s more physical?
It is almost certainly the only chart you will see where Messi sits bottom of the pack. Among forwards with 90 minutes or more, he has averaged just 7.84km and 64 high-speed runs per 90 minutes – tournament lows.
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Paul Merson believes England have X-Factors to help them win the World Cup in Jude Bellingham and Harry Kane
But that is the warning: Messi does not need to run round the clock to decide games. His danger comes in small, explosive actions.
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At the other end of the spectrum, England’s Morgan Rogers is almost out on his own for physical outputs among forwards – but those numbers are somewhat skewed by his shorter cameo appearances as a substitute.
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Tuchel’s side certainly have the edge for pure pace, dominating seven of the top 10 for maximum speed.
Anthony Gordon, Djed Spence and Marcus Rashford lead the way in that department – but Nahuel Molina can apply the afterburners, as can Giuliano Simeone from the bench.
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England goalkeeper Jordan Pickford backs manager Thomas Tuchel’s comments following their Norway victory, agreeing they need to improve
Bellingham leads the way for sprints by a staggering distance, registering 328 to date – nearly 90 more than any other player from either side.
High-speed runs are defined at a slightly lower speed threshold than sprints and Anderson is out on his own in this zone.
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Jude Bellingham responds to Thomas Tuchel’s criticism of England’s performance against Norway
Who’s run farthest? None other than 32-year-old Kane, clocking 67.85 km to date – the equivalent of nearly two marathons
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This fixture has history: Diego Simeone and David Beckham, the Hand of God, and all of that. Given the stakes, it could become emotional – but the numbers suggest the foul battle is more nuanced than Argentina simply being aggressive.
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Wednesday brings the next chapter of one of the most historic rivalries in World Cup history, England v Argentina. Sky Sports news correspondent Geraint Hughes takes us through the historic saga
Argentina rank fourth for fouls committed and fifth for fouls won, so their games tend to be stop-start. England have won 25 more fouls than they’ve committed – the best net rate in the tournament.
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The danger is location: Messi has won nine fouls in the final third – more than any other player at the World Cup – and Argentina have been lethal from set-pieces.
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Argentina are late-show specialists
Finally, England cannot afford to switch off. Argentina have been the tournament’s late-show specialists, scoring 10 goals after the 76th minute – 58.8 per cent of their total.
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Following a chaotic end to Argentina’s World Cup clash against Egypt, Lionel Messi says he ‘felt he let the team down’ after missing a crucial penalty to level the score before early on
Four have come in extra-time, including three in the second half of extra-time, so England may need to manage the game for 120 minutes, not 90.
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England’s route to the final is clear enough: use their width, dominate the aerial battle, balance the midfield, protect the right side and avoid giving Messi dead-ball moments.
But against a side that has scored later than anyone else, they will have to do it until the final whistle.